Alex

[pinkrose]

First named storm of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Right now, it's looking like it won't come over our way. Until last night, it looked like it might. Keeping fingers crossed that it does. That's the last thing we need with the oil out there.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT01/refresh/AL0110W5_NL+gif/084714W5_NL_sm.gif

[figmentmom]

Here we go...:huh

[Hooker]

Looks like a non-threat to the US. I still think the oil spill is going to play out in a storm this summer and who knows what they will be like. Not good.

[figmentmom]

Looks like a non-threat to the US. I still think the oil spill is going to play out in a storm this summer and who knows what they will be like. Not good.

Sadly, I suspect you're right. :huh

[pinkrose]

Looks like a non-threat to the US. I still think the oil spill is going to play out in a storm this summer and who knows what they will be like. Not good. Nope, not good at all. :(


Some models are beginning to shift Alex toward Tx. http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/9480/plot201006262044.gif

[pinkrose]

4am discussion on Alex -

WTNT41 KNHC 270857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

RATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER
DEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS
ENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF
ALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY
THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY
CANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
TAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL...
HWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY
HANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO
CONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN
OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR
LESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER
EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD
THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 18.3N 89.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 19.1N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 28/0600Z 20.2N 91.9W 40 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.9N 92.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 93.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 22.6N 95.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 23.2N 97.4W 85 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 99.7W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[pinkrose]

GFS is also suggesting another tropical system off the east coast of Florida around July 7th and one around Bermuda around the 12th. It's getting active. :(

Here's the NHC FAQ's on hurricanes and oil spills - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_oil_factsheet.pdf

[Hooker]

GFS is also suggesting another tropical system off the east coast of Florida around July 7th and one around Bermuda around the 12th. It's getting active. :(

Here's the NHC FAQ's on hurricanes and oil spills - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_oil_factsheet.pdfInteresting info. Thanks. So, according to that info, we need a storm to hit, say, Panama City Beach? :lookaroun

[pinkrose]

Interesting info. Thanks. So, according to that info, we need a storm to hit, say, Panama City Beach? :lookaroun :lol

The models are shifting back toward Mexico with Alex. I think most of it depends on when the ridge moves. If it gets to moving on east, then Alex will have a more nothern landfall. If not, more southern (from what I've been reading). Right now, he's moving NNW at 5mph. Min. central pressure is at 990MB.

[Hooker]

:lol

The models are shifting back toward Mexico with Alex. I think most of it depends on when the ridge moves. If it gets to moving on east, then Alex will have a more nothern landfall. If not, more southern (from what I've been reading). Right now, he's moving NNW at 5mph. Min. central pressure is at 990MB.You are such a hurricane nerd! :hugs :lol :flower

[pinkrose]

You are such a hurricane nerd! :hugs :lol :flower I am :lol I find them interesting. I just hate the damage they do.

I'm going to be taking the class to become a trained storm spotter this fall. :thumbs

[figmentmom]

I'm going to be taking the class to become a trained storm spotter this fall. :thumbs

Cool! :cool :thumbs

[pinkrose]

Cool! :cool :thumbs

Thanks! I'm excited! I have missed it every year, because we are usually celebrating Nicholas b'day the day of it. This year, it's the weekend prior.



Alex sure is a big boy

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4121/4743641065_7deb51ec1b_b.jpg

[Hooker]

Thanks! I'm excited! I have missed it every year, because we are usually celebrating Nicholas b'day the day of it. This year, it's the weekend prior.



Alex sure is a big boy

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4121/4743641065_7deb51ec1b_b.jpgI remember Hurricane Gilbert back in 1988. We were living in SW Louisiana and a lot of people were concerned. Gilbert got so big that instead of the weather controlling him, Gilbert controlled the weather. We bought a transistor radio just in case and still have it to this day, just in case.

[pinkrose]

I remember Hurricane Gilbert back in 1988. We were living in SW Louisiana and a lot of people were concerned. Gilbert got so big that instead of the weather controlling him, Gilbert controlled the weather. We bought a transistor radio just in case and still have it to this day, just in case.

Transistor radio's are good to have around. We have a little battery powered radio that we have in our emergency box. So far, we've only had to use it twice. Ivan and Katrina. It kept the house from being too quiet, since we didn't have power. :lol


The models have now moved back northward a little, toward Tx. Alex pressure is 985MB with Max. sustained winds at 65mph

[pinkrose]

Alex becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2010 season.

HURRICANE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18

...ALEX BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2010 SEASON AND THE FIRST
JUNE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SINCE 1995...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 94.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

[pinkrose]

Here's the 7am update. Check out that pressure. The winds have not caught up with it.

LOCATION...23.4N 95.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

The storm is expected to strengthen until landfall