TS Matthew

[Hooker]

Uh oh....

this one might bear some watching for us.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT15/refresh/AL1510W5_NL+gif/174913W5_NL_sm.gif

[pinkrose]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_15.gif


Last night, they were saying Key West, through Orlando, and east of Jacksonville. Late last night, they were saying south FL. It's one to watch for sure. Some models have also been showing what should be Nicole soon as well. That one has yet to show up though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

[Doug11]

That circle outside the circle needs to point a little more to the west, please.

[Hooker]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_15.gif


Last night, they were saying Key West, through Orlando, and east of Jacksonville. Late last night, they were saying south FL. It's one to watch for sure. Some models have also been showing what should be Nicole soon as well. That one has yet to show up though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.htmloooh, pretty colors!

[pinkrose]

On the weather board, people are having a hard time telling if it's Matthew or Nicole that ends up in Fl. (looking at the models). They think it's probably Matthew though.

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010


THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS.
MATTHEW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND TWO
DAYS...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER CONTINUES WESTWARD AND DISSIPATES...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND BECOMES PART OF A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SUCH A WEATHER PATTERN
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS TORRENTIAL RAINS IN CENTRAL AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Hooker]

Looking at the latest update, Matthew looks dead in the water.

[pinkrose]

Looking at the latest update, Matthew looks dead in the water.

The 18z GFS has a system in Fl., but I don't know if it's Matthew or Nicole. There's a lot of wait and see with this one.

[Hooker]

I don't see any other system. :shrug

[pinkrose]

I don't see any other system. :shrug It hasn't formed yet :lol The 0z GFS does reform Matthew around Cuba.


The models are so mixed up on Matthew :lol https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_15.gif

[Hooker]

It hasn't formed yet :lol The 0z GFS does reform Matthew around Cuba.


The models are so mixed up on Matthew :lol https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_15.gifIt hasn't formed and they've named it Nicole? :blink

[Regina]

It hasn't formed and they've named it Nicole? :blink

The names are predetermined :lookaroun

[Hooker]

The names are predetermined :lookaroun
I know that, but the system itself doesn't even exist at this point.

[pinkrose]

I know that, but the system itself doesn't even exist at this point.

They were seeing it on the models. Who knows if the one they are seeing will be Nicole or not. Everyone's been confused as to if the second system they see is Matthew reformed or Nicole. Here's the Matthew thread - http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?/topic/55374-former-tropical-storm-matthew-thread/page__st__125 Some of these people are actual mets and some are armchair mets.

[pinkrose]

Matthew is gone, and what could become Nicole has formed...

2am TWO:

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.